WHAT'S IN THE NUNES MEMO?
In a departure from my usual fare, I have taken a stab at predicting what will be in the Nunes memo, and what the US Department of Justice Inspector General will report.
This may be amended or edited as new information comes to light. To my mind this story is as fascinating and convoluted as any Le Carre-style spy thriller.
JANUARY 29, 2018
MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NUNES MEMO
Newspaper Columns, Commentary and Other
CORRECTING FALSE CLAIMS IN THE NYC LAWSUIT
The City of New York has filed a lawsuit against a group of large oil and gas companies including Exxon Mobil, alleging among other things that they conspired to mislead the public about the dangers of global warming. Paragraph 87 of the complaint alleges that I was paid by Exxon to do the "hockey stick" work for the Fraser Institute. The claim is completely false and the paragraph is full of untrue statements. I have issued this statement in response:
FIVE QUESTIONS ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE
In late 2017 I was contacted via email by a group of high school students in Europe who asked if I would answer some questions about global warming for a project they were doing. Here are the questions they posed, and the answers I gave them.
ARE CLIMATE MODELS OVERSTATING WARMING?
There has been a lot of discussion about a new paper tying model over-estimation of warming to the policy agenda; viz., there is more time than previously claimed to implement emission controls. I have written on this previously but in light of the current discussion I put up a blog post at Judy Curry's Climate Etc. blog:
Basically I go through a couple of indicators and arrive at an affirmative answer.
The idea of this site is very simple: to present the complete environmental record of every community across Canada. The site currently shows air emissions by source (back to 1985), air contaminant levels (back to 1974) and monthly average high temperatures (back to 1900) for hundreds of places across the country. Water pollution data are coming this summer.
The layout is self-explanatory and it's very easy to use. The data are all from government agencies, but most of it has not hitherto been disseminated in a usable form to the public. All my sources are, or will soon be, linked and the data I use will all be easily-downloadable.
So the next time you find yourself in a conversation with someone who (i) is convinced that Canada does nothing to protect the environment, or (ii) thinks winters around here used to be a lot colder/longer/snowier; or it never used to be this warm/cold in April/October/ etc, or (iii) worries/guffaws about the alleged/obvious ecological disaster all around us, and you wonder what is actually going on, look at yourenvironment.ca and find out.
Journal Articles and Discussion Papers
THE IMPACT OF HIGH ELECTRICITY COSTS ON ONTARIO MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT
Elmira Aliakbari and I completed a report for the Fraser Institute looking at the changes in Ontario's manufacturing sector since 2005, isolating as best we can the effects of rising electricity costs. We estimate that energy cost increases cost the province about 75,000 manufacturing jobs since 2008, roughly 2 jobs lost for every 1 the province claims was created by its Green Energy Act.
The study received a higher-than-normal amount of media attention including articles in almost all daily papers across Canada, and countless radio interviews including 6 CBC affiliates.
EMISSION TAXES AND DAMAGE THRESHOLDS IN THE PRESENCE OF PRE-EXISTING REGULATIONS
Many commentators on carbon taxes have only a superficial grasp of the economic theory, which leads them to think that pricing carbon at the marginal damage rate is economically efficient, even though this is only true under very limited and unrealistic circumstances. Lots of previous studies have shown that the rule breaks down under pre-existing taxes, but no one has looked at the effect of pre-existing regulations. I have released a new working paper looking at this topic.
EMPIRICALLY-CONSTRAINED CLIMATE SENSITIVITY AND THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON
I have completed a study with Kevin Dayaratna of the Heritage Foundation in Washington DC and David Kreutzer of the EPA, which recomputes standard Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) estimates using updated empirical estimates of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS).