par 10000 set nowarnskip * * APRIL 2004 - FINAL REVIEW VERSION * THIS FILE USES 5X5 IPCC GRID DATA AND STATION DATA TO TEST FOR REMOVAL OF * NONCLIMATIC INFLUENCES ON TEMPERATURES * * THIS RUN READS IN 1979-2000 STATION/TROP/ECON DATA FROM GDPTEMP03.TXT * READS IN 1979-2000 IPCC GRIDDED DATA ANN/WARM/COLD FROM TREND7901.TXT * AND READS IN 1979-2000 MISSING CELL COUNTS ANN/WARM/COLD FROM MISSING.TXT * * THEN DOES GLS REGRESSIONS ON CROSS-SECTIONS OF TREND PATTERNS * * TO RUN THIS FILE ON A UNIX SYSTEM WITH SHAZAM PUT THIS FILE INTO A FOLDER WITH * DATA FILES (USE LOWERCASE) GDPTEMP03.DIF, TRENDS7900.TXT, MISSING_7900.TXT * THEN RUN COMMAND LINE >shazam gsmod gsmod.out * THIS WILL READ COMMANDS AND DATA AND PUT OUTPUT LINES INTO gsmod.out * * * Read in data * read(gdptemp03.dif) / dif read(trends7900.txt) glat glon gtrend gapsep gocmr read(missing_7900.txt) mlat mlon gamiss gapsepm gocmrm genr obs=time(0) * * Generate NH/SH Cold-warm Season Data * Note dum(lat)=1 if Lat positive, 0 otherwise genr nh=dum(lat) genr sh=1-nh * genr gwarm=sh*gocmr+nh*gapsep genr gcold=sh*gapsep+nh*gocmr * genr gwmiss=sh*gocmrm +nh*gapsepm genr gcmiss=sh*gapsepm+nh*gocmrm * * NOTE VARIABLE TITLES: * STREND = ANNUAL TREND IN SURFACE STATIONS * GTREND = ANNUAL TREND IN GRID CELLS * MTREND = ANNUAL TREND IN MSU DATA * * GWARM = APR-SEP TREND IN GRID CELLS * GCOLD = OCT-MAR TREND IN GRID CELLS * * GCMISS = MISSING VALUES IN GRID CELL RECORD IN COLD SEASON * GWMISS = MISSING VALUES IN GRID CELL RECORD IN WARM SEASON * * Generate surf-trop differences * genr stdiff=gtrend-mtrend * * Put Coal into billion short tons genr coal80=coal80/1000 * * Put Scale79 into billions US$ genr scale79=pop*inc79/1000000 * * Put Pop into 100,000s genr pop=pop/100000 * * * * Test effects of missing values on mean trend stat strend mtrend * skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) stat strend gtrend mtrend /pcor delete skip$ * skipif(gtrend.gt.-99) stat strend mtrend delete skip$ * * Generate additional covariates genr abslat=abs(lat) genr coslat=sin(2*lat)/(2*sin(lat)) genr cosablat=sin(2*abslat)/(2*sin(abslat)) * ********************************************************** * * Table 2: Descriptive statistics * For GTREND use above table as * some vals are -99 (missing) * ********************************************************** * stat strend gtrend mtrend stdiff gwarm gcold & press water lat pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow & inc79 gdpgrow soviet lit79 & surfmiss gamiss gwmiss gcmiss * * *********************************************************** *********************************************************** * * Global Annual sample: Table 4 * * *********************************************************** *********************************************************** * * ********************************************************** * * Table 4 Column 1: Station Data * ********************************************************** * ols strend press water cosablat * * ols strend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet surfmiss lit79 /hetcov * * P(Econ=0) test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * P(Soc=0) test test surfmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * P(Econ=Soc=Sov=0) test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 test surfmiss=0 test lit79=0 test soviet=0 end * ********************************************************** * * Table 4 Column 2: Gridded Data * ********************************************************** * skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) ols gtrend press water cosablat * * ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb * * * P(Econ=0) test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * P(Soc=0) test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * P(Econ=Soc=Sov=0) test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 test soviet=0 end * ********************************************************** * * Table 8: The "True" Temperature Trends * ********************************************************** * * remove economic effects * genr rmvecon=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & +bb:10*soviet+bb:11*gamiss+bb:12*lit79+bb:13 * * remove social effects * genr rmvsoc=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & +bb:10*soviet+bb:12*99+bb:13 * * remove Soviet effects * genr rmvsov=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & +bb:12*99+bb:13 * * set income to sample mean (6.44) * genr meaninc=bb:1*press+bb:2*water+bb:3*cosablat & +bb:8*6.44+bb:12*99+bb:13 * stat gtrend rmvecon rmvsoc rmvsov meaninc /pcor * * * * * ********************************************************************* ********************************************************************* * * Table 5: Subsamples in Wealthy and Poor Regions * ********************************************************************* ********************************************************************* *qq * *********************************************************** * * Table 5 Columns 1-2 Wealthy regions * *********************************************************** * * Wealthy, Station Data * delete skip$ skipif(inc79.lt.6) ols strend press water cosablat * ols strend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & surfmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test surfmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * Wealthy, Gridded Data * delete skip$ skipif(inc79.lt.6) skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) ols gtrend press water cosablat * ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & gamiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * *********************************************************** * * Table 5 Columns 3-4: Poor Regions * *********************************************************** * * Poor, Station Data * delete skip$ skipif(inc79.ge.6) ols strend press water cosablat * ols strend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet surfmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test surfmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * * Poor, Gridded Data * delete skip$ skipif(inc79.ge.6) skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) ols gtrend press water cosablat * ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * ********************************************************************* ********************************************************************* * * Table 6: Cold/Warm, Global/Dry for GRIDDED DATA * ********************************************************************* ********************************************************************* * *********************************************************** * * Table 6 Cols 1-2: Cold Season * *********************************************************** * * * Cold, Global Sample * delete skip$ skipif(gcold.eq.-99) ols gcold press water cosablat * ols gcold press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gcmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * * test test gcmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * * Cold, Dry Region Sample * delete skip$ skipif(gcold.eq.-99) skipif(dpress.eq.0) ols gcold press water cosablat * ols gcold press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gcmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * * test test gcmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * *********************************************************** * * Table 6 Cols 3-4: Warm Season * *********************************************************** * * * Warm, Global Sample * delete skip$ skipif(gwarm.eq.-99) ols gwarm press water cosablat * ols gwarm press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gwmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * * test test gwmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * * Warm, Dry Region Sample * delete skip$ skipif(gwarm.eq.-99) skipif(dpress.eq.0) ols gwarm press water cosablat * ols gwarm press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gwmiss lit79 /hetcov * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * * test test gwmiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * * *********************************************************** *********************************************************** * ** Table 7: Specification Tests * *********************************************************** *********************************************************** * * *********************************************************** * * Col 2: Globe without outliers * *********************************************************** * delete skip$ skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) * ?ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 & / coef=bb resid=es hatdiag=hh genr inf=2*($k)/($n) skipif(hh.ge.inf) * * ols gtrend press water cosablat * ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * *********************************************************** * * Column 3: Surf-Trop differences * *********************************************************** * delete skip$ skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) ols stdiff press water cosablat * ols stdiff press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb * * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * *********************************************************** * * Column 4: Orthogonalized Model * *********************************************************** * ols gtrend press water cosablat /resid=xx * ols xx & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 /hetcov coef=bb * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * * * *********************************************************** * * Columnn 5: Predict a withheld sample * *********************************************************** * * North and South America * delete skip$ skipif(gtrend.eq.-99) sample 1 218 genr surfu=1 * sample 68 218 ols gtrend press water cosablat * ols gtrend press water cosablat & pop scale79 coal80 coalgrow inc79 gdpgrow & soviet gamiss lit79 & / coef=cc * test test pop=0 test scale79=0 test coal80=0 test coalgrow=0 test inc79=0 test gdpgrow=0 end * test test gamiss=0 test lit79=0 end * sample 1 67 genr surfu=cc:1*press+cc:2*water+cc:3*cosablat+cc:4*pop & +cc:5*scale79+cc:6*coal80+cc:7*coalgrow+cc:8*inc79 & +cc:9*gdpgrow+cc:10*soviet+cc:11*gamiss & +cc:12*lit79+cc:13 * print gtrend surfu stat gtrend surfu /pcor ols gtrend surfu * stop